We measure Swing High and Swing Low by calculating the mean or mean deviation for the first four years of the career (not including playoffs). To calculate the mean or mean deviation (MDS) we divide the player’s swing-high by his swing-low (the standard deviations of the players).
In the example above, if Josh Hamilton’s career MDS is 2.3, that means his swing-high is 2.3 times the mean deviation for his career.
To find the mean or mean deviation, multiply the player’s swing-high by his swing-low (the standard deviations of the hitters).
To calculate each team’s true talent (or true talent, n-ts), divide the player’s swing-high by his swing-low.
For example, the Tigers have a true talent of 14.2. The mean or mean deviation for Hamilton’s career for a high team (19 wins) or low team (5 losses) is 7.5. So his true talent has been 14.2 X 5.
But the Tigers also have a high level of average talent and they probably would have been better off by playing a high level of average defense and losing more games than they did. So, their true talent could have been 14.2 – 1.5 – 2.0 – 3.5 = 11.8.
In the above example, to calculate a team’s true talent, divide the team’s true swing-high by their true swing-low.
We also calculate True Swing-High and True Swing-Low with which we could find the team’s true talent.
To find the True Swing High and True Swing Low, we need to find out who has the lowest swing-high, the lowest swing-low, and the same number of swings over both players’ career.
To find their swing-high in the example, we multiply their swing-high by (15 x 0.01) for Miguel Cabrera who has a swing-high of 4.2. We also find their true swing-low by (17.7 x 0.01) for Justin Upton whose swing-low is 1.7.
To calculate their true swing-high/low number, we divide their swing-high, (19-5), by their swing-low.
To calculate their true swing-high/low number, we multiply their swing-high, (19-7), by their swing-low.
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